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Re: Breakthrough for Me
Congratulations Steve,
I think Astrid is an important tool for IOTA going forward. I hope to use 2 Astrids for remote stations at some point. Astrid would be my recommendation for newbie¡¯s or perhaps an IOTA supplied GPS flasher.? (The flash tag app did not work consistently for me, I would not recommend it) I love PyMovie and PyOTE but they both have grown into a complex ?software package. I had to create documents for both that I follow, otherwise, I would surely make mistakes keeping up with all the changes.? Not complaining, because I know it has features needed by others and/or to analyze specific circumstances with increased accuracy. I could send out my asteroid Py processing documents to anyone to use¡ or to get suggestions on improving them. Who knows¡ there may be errors in my methodology. Rick Bria? |
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Re: Breakthrough for Me
Kevin--speaking of remote, any chance you can try (35056) Cullers on March 21 03:53 UT?? Looks like it passes just north of your typical location.? That's my next possible multistation try (after returning from vacation).
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Steve C
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Re: Breakthrough for Me
George,
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Absolutely true--the event came from my own search.? That is another big game changer.? Still just amazes me how much this sport has changed in the past couple of years.
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The main downside to me right now is how complicated both the Occult predicts and the PyOTE & PyMovie are to use.? If I didn't have the notes I collected from you and some others, there is no way I'd be able to do the predicts I'm doing now on a monthly basis--I still have to look at them every time I do it.? And when I went to use PyMovie last night it was a real struggle after more than a month after my last go at doing analysis (mostly weather and travel caused).? If we were to talk to an interested person at our NEAF booth in April and show them those notes for using Occult, I think most would be running away with hands in the air.? Is there a way to automate all that???
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Steve C
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Re: Breakthrough for Me
Steve:
Congrats! Nice effort! You mentioned how Astrid helped in getting this event, but it looks like you wouldn't have known about it if you hadn't done your own search using Occult4. It's great how good the recent JPL predictions now are! I captured 10 events in February (9 of them with my Astrid) and the predicted JPL paths seemed to be very close to what I actually witnessed - and most had very small 1-sigmas. Yes, it's nice that if you make the effort to "go mobile" you can now have more faith in coming back with a result! George PS: I'm working on an Astrid review follow-up.... |
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Breakthrough for Me
Yesterday I had no observing on my calendar, but the forecast for the evening was looking to be clear for a change.? There were no good events for my home observatory in either OW nor my own run of Occult.? There also were no "go mobile" events meeting my criteria of near 100% chance, brighter than mag 12, within 20 km, and with a safe possible observing site.? By the afternoon, while it was still 100% cloudy, both the forecast and the satellite images continued to look very promising.? I searched my Occult run again, and found an event that met all my criteria except the mag was only 12.5.? Zero probability for my home observatory, but the centerline was only 3 km south of here.? It was also at a very nice 9:20 PM event time.? I was skeptical that my C5/Astrid combination would be able to get good data on this event, but since it was predicted to be about 0.6 seconds, I could push the exposure time to 0.1 second.
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I was able to get permission to set-up at our county airport (Grand Canyon Regional--doesn't that have the possibility of causing confusion!) and the county visitor's center--which are less than a km apart.? Decided to put the C5/Astrid at the airport (further from the predicted centerline) and let it run unattended, and set-up my C9.25/Watec 910 at the visitor's center where I'd be.? I knew the C9.25 would be able to get the event, and setting up the Astrid isn't a big time effort if it didn't pan out.
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Astrid set-up as usual was trivial.? I was on the prepoint location in minutes.? My only worry was focus with the telescope cooling to the low 30's--but I did run a powered dew heater that would help some.? On to the second location, and found that I didn't leave quite enough time for the usual minor issues with setting up and getting on target.? With a bit of sweating, I was able to get on target with 3 minutes to spare.? The target appeared brighter than I expected, and I was able to use 4x (likely could have gone to 2x even)--but is was stunningly clear and the target high at 62 degrees elevation.? Watching live, I saw the blink about 5 seconds early (error in time was listed as 1 second in OW).??
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Packed up, went back to the airport.? Astrid indicated it was happy, but I powered down without looking at the video there.? Packed that up, and was home by 10:00.
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Great results!? The C9.25/Watec had a 0.72 second event with a 0.02 second 3-sigma (SNR 6.5).? The Astrid had a 0.80 second event with 0.10 second 3-sigma (SNR 3.7).? Astrid focus was very good.? The 0.2 second offset in time was in the direction I expected due to the almost 1 km difference along the path line between the two sites (but larger than would be accounted for by just that).
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Anyway, after 17 years of doing this, I finally have a double remote positive.? No way I could have done this (reasonably) without the Astrid.? I really need a second one to start doing some serious damage...
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Steve C
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Astrid Feather Case
Mark has told us that for some future version of the Astrid software, we'll need to plug a Adafruit Feather into it in order to control the WiFi access.? He was also offering a case for it, but I decided since I enjoy designing/building 3D printed things, I'd come up with my own.? Here's my first version, that only needs a few tweaks to be finished.? I decided I want to capture/strain relieve the USB cable--in case I drop it (when has that ever happened to me?).? I made the buttons stand up tall so they are easy to distinguish, although I chose to not put an extension on the reset button so I wouldn't accidently hit that (again, I'm sure I've never had that happen).? For that button, you need a pen or similar to actuate it.??
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The first photo shows it assembled and plugged into a power supply.? The second is with the case opened, with the non-display side of the board up.
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Changes yet to be made:
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Anyway, if any of you want the .3mf model files to print your own or want me to print one for you, I'd be happy to provide that.
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Steve C
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A Good Night Goes Bad...
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Last night looked like a very promising one--3 events I could do from home with probabilities greater than 85%.? The main downside was all were quite low to the horizon, and 2 of the 3 were faint (>13).? Also 2 of 3 were short (<0.5 sec max).? The weather predicts were perfectly clear, but cold (20 F).??
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2 were low enough I couldn't get them from the observatory.? They were also faint and low so I couldn't use my C5/Astrid combo.? I used my old Nexstar C9.25 in the driveway--but of course I couldn't get both from the same location, so moving and realigning was necessary in between.? Short version of the results:
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Other complications:
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Just another day at the office...
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Steve C
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Re: NEAF
NEAF supplies tables, chairs, backdrop, and electricity.? We provide the rest.
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Steve
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Re: NEAF
Sorry, somehow that blank message got sent a bit early.? Couldn't have been my fault!
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Anyway,
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With Ted not being able to attend NEAF, the current roster of booth volunteers includes:
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Cindy
David
Joan
Rick
Roxanne
Steve C
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This is plenty, but we'd welcome one or two more certainly.? Before I send out on the general IOTA groups.io list, is there anyone on the OccultNEUS list who wants to be added?
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We are also starting to think about where to meet up as a group.? I'm guessing Saturday evening, and if clear we can combine it with some Astrid demos.
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Steve
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Re: NEAF
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Re: The JPL Predictions
Interesting. I have exactly the same thoughts. I used to try to go deep at the observatory and never go mobile. ASTRID has changed that strategy. Now I plan to set the observatory for unattended operation, take a go to telescope with Astrid and go mobile for a second Cord. Or¡ take an asteroid to a second observatory in the area.
In my case, the dome is also not slaved to the telescope. I also have to pre-point the dome. Funny how people think alike. Even if skies are not clear during NEAF, seeing Astrid displayed at the iota booth will be a great help for me.? Rick Bria? |
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Re: Personal Predictions
Steve:
I used to (be able to) announce my Personal Predictions thru OW Desktop (OWD). I'm not sure if you can do that now. I think I tried that and wasn't able to. It might be this now has to be done thru OW Cloud (OWC). I've posted several using OWC. I think having to use OWC is now a "safety precaution" so that others don't post inaccurate predictions (like based on MPC elements). First, you must have or create an account for OW. Then go to OW Cloud and log in. Select Events, and search for the specific event. Click on it. Tag the event (my name is displayed as a tag name and I select it) Click on the event again (it might show a huge path-width and time error at this point!) This should tell OWC to "update" the prediction (almost always using JPL) Sometimes I just get a "spinning wheel" - FOREVER - at this point, and nothing goes further ???????? In that case I log out and try again later. This seems to be a big issue with OWC. ???????? It sometimes takes many (many) minutes for OWC to access JPL and update the path. If you need to log back in later, call up the event. You should see it as Tagged as yourself. Select the event (yet) again......... (If updated, it may now list a "JPL number") Eventually you should see/get the (refined) path plot But you still have to sign-up your station (location)... Zoom in and click on the map to place your station Now you need to scroll down the screen and enter info for your station After you do that OWC should say "Station submitted successfully!" ??? Finally ------- Amen and Hallelujah !!! Now when you call up OWD you need to Re-Synchronize to see your event For others to see your event they must have Personal Predictions checked in their OWD Configuration ??? --G |
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Personal Predictions
Anyone able to help on this one?? When I have my personal predictions on OW, I can only promote them to "Add Event for Follow Up"--there is no option for announcing stations.? Once that is done and they are on My Events, if I do the Announce Station option by right clicking the event, nothing comes back.? Thoughts on what I'm doing wrong--I'm guessing I'm missing a step somewhere?? Or is that the way it is suppose to behave???
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Thanks.
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Steve C ?
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Re: The JPL Predictions
Kevin and George,
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It sure is a very different sport than it was a year or two ago.? I really needed to completely rethink how I was doing things.? Before Astrid and the huge improvement in predictions, I avoided going mobile like the plague.? I was more than happy to use the observatory and "go deep" after faint events, and couldn't deal with the time pressure (my fatal flaw!) of going on the road.? The other issue I had--and still have--is I just won't go and set-up anywhere without having permission to be there.? So I'm working on getting a bunch of locations (other astronomy friends homes, state parks, etc.) that I have the long-term OK to set-up at.
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When it makes sense, I'm doing the equivalent of Kevin and running my home observatory on autopilot while I go on the road.? The main issue I have with that is the completely unreliable dome drive.? I'm forced to pre-position the dome and turn it off.? A generally fine workaround, but just another complication.
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But there are still a lot of events that are within a modest drive that have zero chance from my observatory.? I could really use another Astrid to try to get multiple chords.? Getting a bunch more of us in the area would also help--hopefully having an Astrid for demo at NEAF can generate more interest.
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Quick different topic for your enjoyment.? My personal predictions suddenly started running pretty lean--I had been getting a fair number of good ones (only to be lost to the 28 of 31 nights in January being cloudy).? Instead I'd just get a half dozen or so dicey ones--for an entire month!? I finally found that somehow I accidently clicked the "Astreroids with moons" box.? Not sure how I managed to do that, but at least the problem is solved...
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Steve C
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Re: The JPL Predictions
Kevin, agreed. There may still be other factors that can disappoint, and yes, those factors can swamp the JPL path error uncertainty. The two big ones being RUWE and the asteroid's Shape. Here's a very recent example.
Just a short while ago (on Feb 4th UT) I had a 100% JPL-based probability on (791) Ani. I observed a clear Miss. However Denis Gray in Toronto also observed the event and apparently got a 4.0 second Hit (the predicted max was 3.9 seconds). As the attached images show, he was on the other side of the centerline. The RUWE for the Target Star is 2.7 (with the note "beware") which is greater than the reliability threshold of 1.4. The asteroid also has 2 Shape Models in Occult4. Occult4 allows the user to scale and overlay the shape model on the predicted path (see attached). Using the "most likely" shape model, here's what I come up with for a ""possible"" scenario. The Target Star's position error caused the path to shift somewhat south, and the asteroid's shape outline 'may' have contributed -- being oblong in the direction of the path. Thus I got the Miss and Denis got just over the maximum duration (which assumes the asteroid's shape to be round). So yes, nothing is guaranteed, but our 'sport' has certainly become more interesting lately. BTW: On Feb 5th I got 2 Hits (100% & 10% JPL probabilities / 7km & 4km rocks / Combined Mags of 13.9 & 13.8), on Feb 6th I got another 2 Hits (100% & 87% JPL probabilities / 17km & 5km rocks / Combined Mags of 14.5 & 14.8), and on Feb 7th I got 1 Hit (100% JPL probability / 18km rock / Combined Mag of 14.5). ...And all were done with my Astrid which allowed me to do a little longer exposures than the ~14.4 Mag (and 0.133 exposure) limit that I would normally have if I used my "winter camera" - the RunCam NE2AE. So Astrid possibly allowed me to capture 3 "extra" Hits than I normally might have gotten. BTW II: Now that I have the WiFi problem sorted out (and I believe - solved) with my Astrid, I'm finding it to be a very useful camera - with both pros & cons. I'm hoping to find time to do an updated report on it soon and post it here. Kevin - again I agree it's ideal if we can get multiple chords - which is one of the reasons for "NEUS". I'm keeping watch on events which look promising for me and which also may come close to other NEUS observers (whose locations I know about). I'll certainly try to alert others to events if I can. I'm also trying to get some other Northeast observers "in the loop". ?? -G |
rickbria22
Steve C
George Viscome
