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Re: NEAF
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Re: The JPL Predictions
Interesting. I have exactly the same thoughts. I used to try to go deep at the observatory and never go mobile. ASTRID has changed that strategy. Now I plan to set the observatory for unattended operation, take a go to telescope with Astrid and go mobile for a second Cord. Or¡ take an asteroid to a second observatory in the area.
In my case, the dome is also not slaved to the telescope. I also have to pre-point the dome. Funny how people think alike. Even if skies are not clear during NEAF, seeing Astrid displayed at the iota booth will be a great help for me.? Rick Bria? |
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Re: Personal Predictions
Steve:
I used to (be able to) announce my Personal Predictions thru OW Desktop (OWD). I'm not sure if you can do that now. I think I tried that and wasn't able to. It might be this now has to be done thru OW Cloud (OWC). I've posted several using OWC. I think having to use OWC is now a "safety precaution" so that others don't post inaccurate predictions (like based on MPC elements). First, you must have or create an account for OW. Then go to OW Cloud and log in. Select Events, and search for the specific event. Click on it. Tag the event (my name is displayed as a tag name and I select it) Click on the event again (it might show a huge path-width and time error at this point!) This should tell OWC to "update" the prediction (almost always using JPL) Sometimes I just get a "spinning wheel" - FOREVER - at this point, and nothing goes further ???????? In that case I log out and try again later. This seems to be a big issue with OWC. ???????? It sometimes takes many (many) minutes for OWC to access JPL and update the path. If you need to log back in later, call up the event. You should see it as Tagged as yourself. Select the event (yet) again......... (If updated, it may now list a "JPL number") Eventually you should see/get the (refined) path plot But you still have to sign-up your station (location)... Zoom in and click on the map to place your station Now you need to scroll down the screen and enter info for your station After you do that OWC should say "Station submitted successfully!" ??? Finally ------- Amen and Hallelujah !!! Now when you call up OWD you need to Re-Synchronize to see your event For others to see your event they must have Personal Predictions checked in their OWD Configuration ??? --G |
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Personal Predictions
Anyone able to help on this one?? When I have my personal predictions on OW, I can only promote them to "Add Event for Follow Up"--there is no option for announcing stations.? Once that is done and they are on My Events, if I do the Announce Station option by right clicking the event, nothing comes back.? Thoughts on what I'm doing wrong--I'm guessing I'm missing a step somewhere?? Or is that the way it is suppose to behave???
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Thanks.
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Steve C ?
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Re: The JPL Predictions
Kevin and George,
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It sure is a very different sport than it was a year or two ago.? I really needed to completely rethink how I was doing things.? Before Astrid and the huge improvement in predictions, I avoided going mobile like the plague.? I was more than happy to use the observatory and "go deep" after faint events, and couldn't deal with the time pressure (my fatal flaw!) of going on the road.? The other issue I had--and still have--is I just won't go and set-up anywhere without having permission to be there.? So I'm working on getting a bunch of locations (other astronomy friends homes, state parks, etc.) that I have the long-term OK to set-up at.
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When it makes sense, I'm doing the equivalent of Kevin and running my home observatory on autopilot while I go on the road.? The main issue I have with that is the completely unreliable dome drive.? I'm forced to pre-position the dome and turn it off.? A generally fine workaround, but just another complication.
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But there are still a lot of events that are within a modest drive that have zero chance from my observatory.? I could really use another Astrid to try to get multiple chords.? Getting a bunch more of us in the area would also help--hopefully having an Astrid for demo at NEAF can generate more interest.
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Quick different topic for your enjoyment.? My personal predictions suddenly started running pretty lean--I had been getting a fair number of good ones (only to be lost to the 28 of 31 nights in January being cloudy).? Instead I'd just get a half dozen or so dicey ones--for an entire month!? I finally found that somehow I accidently clicked the "Astreroids with moons" box.? Not sure how I managed to do that, but at least the problem is solved...
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Steve C
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Re: The JPL Predictions
Kevin, agreed. There may still be other factors that can disappoint, and yes, those factors can swamp the JPL path error uncertainty. The two big ones being RUWE and the asteroid's Shape. Here's a very recent example.
Just a short while ago (on Feb 4th UT) I had a 100% JPL-based probability on (791) Ani. I observed a clear Miss. However Denis Gray in Toronto also observed the event and apparently got a 4.0 second Hit (the predicted max was 3.9 seconds). As the attached images show, he was on the other side of the centerline. The RUWE for the Target Star is 2.7 (with the note "beware") which is greater than the reliability threshold of 1.4. The asteroid also has 2 Shape Models in Occult4. Occult4 allows the user to scale and overlay the shape model on the predicted path (see attached). Using the "most likely" shape model, here's what I come up with for a ""possible"" scenario. The Target Star's position error caused the path to shift somewhat south, and the asteroid's shape outline 'may' have contributed -- being oblong in the direction of the path. Thus I got the Miss and Denis got just over the maximum duration (which assumes the asteroid's shape to be round). So yes, nothing is guaranteed, but our 'sport' has certainly become more interesting lately. BTW: On Feb 5th I got 2 Hits (100% & 10% JPL probabilities / 7km & 4km rocks / Combined Mags of 13.9 & 13.8), on Feb 6th I got another 2 Hits (100% & 87% JPL probabilities / 17km & 5km rocks / Combined Mags of 14.5 & 14.8), and on Feb 7th I got 1 Hit (100% JPL probability / 18km rock / Combined Mag of 14.5). ...And all were done with my Astrid which allowed me to do a little longer exposures than the ~14.4 Mag (and 0.133 exposure) limit that I would normally have if I used my "winter camera" - the RunCam NE2AE. So Astrid possibly allowed me to capture 3 "extra" Hits than I normally might have gotten. BTW II: Now that I have the WiFi problem sorted out (and I believe - solved) with my Astrid, I'm finding it to be a very useful camera - with both pros & cons. I'm hoping to find time to do an updated report on it soon and post it here. Kevin - again I agree it's ideal if we can get multiple chords - which is one of the reasons for "NEUS". I'm keeping watch on events which look promising for me and which also may come close to other NEUS observers (whose locations I know about). I'll certainly try to alert others to events if I can. I'm also trying to get some other Northeast observers "in the loop". ?? -G |
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The JPL Predictions
NEUS Folks......
Have to mention how impressed I am with the recent improvements in many of the JPL-based predictions. When it's been clear... (alas, not very often...), some of the events I've gone after have a time uncertainty of --ZERO-- seconds. And this has been verified by a few positive events I've hit recently. It seems JPL is now fully implementing the GAIA astrometry for many, many asteroids. ....And the 1-sigma bounds for many rocks are now astonishingly small. The result seems to be that when you see such a prediction, and you are have "somewhat close to a 100% chance / probability", then it's now a very strong possibility you'll see a star wink at you (tho always check the RUWE!). And a major side result is......... ??????????? == There's even more reason to "Go Mobile". You now have to be quite careful when looking at predictions that state a low or 0% chance. It may be that just moving a few (to several) km in toward the centerline will make an immense difference in the % chance - and in the actual result. Before, I was skeptical of going mobile for many events -- and sometimes only did so on larger rocks when it seemed "it would be hard to miss". It seems there are now many more events that approach a "sure thing" - making a mobile effort more of a happy payoff. ??????????? == Mobile observing is looking more like the way to go at times. Well,... there's still no guarantees.... but things are looking a lot more interesting. George |
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Re: Fw: [OccultNEUS] NEAF
OK, we'll hope Saturday night is clear, and shoot for that.? If the forecast shows that Friday will be clear and Saturday looks poor, we can reevaluate.
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I'll plan on bringing my Astrid and the C-5/Voyager mount I use it on.? We can have it on display in the booth as well.
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Steve C
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Re: NEAF
I should note that before IOTA had a booth at NEAF, a bunch of us had the idea to have a meet-up there.? This must have been about 10 years ago or more.? I remember about a half-dozen of us sitting around a table in the college cafeteria chatting about equipment and events for an hour or two.? This was back in the days where the Kiwi time stamper, PC-164 camera, and Canon video cameras (for recording) ruled--and our ability to predict events wasn't anywhere near where we are now.? The group had the idea of getting a booth for the next year, and Ted B did the work to make that happen.
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Would any of the group who doesn't yet have a Astrid want to see a demo of its use?? I can bring mine and we can try an event (good, poor, or fake) on Friday or Saturday night if clear.
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Steve C
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Re: Promising March Events
Kevin:
'Guess it depends on which (9) Metis events you look at !! There are two that Steve has a shot at !! Yes, the March 23rd event gives you 0%, but the March 10th event gives you 100%. Heck, give 'm both a shot. Maybe you'll get that suspected moon and we can make up for the Adelheid event we missed !?? :-) ? -G |
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Re: Promising March Events
Steve (and other NEUS folks):
Here's what I came up with for events for you in March when I ran Occult4 using the 1st 50,000 numbered asteroids. [Your (55471) event isn't listed since it's over the 50,000 number limit I used]. A (9) Metis event also passes by Kevin Green. I included an overall list for March of events that pass within 40km (25 miles) of you -- some show a 0% chance but if you "Go Mobile" you might up that to near 100%. I also included an interesting event in May where potentially 5 Northeast observers fall in the same path. All found with a basic Occult4 search. George |
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NEAF
There have been a few emails sent around on NEAF, including Roxanne, the Dunhams, Ted B, and myself.? Sounds like the plans are similar to previous years.
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Steve C
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Promising March Events
I was looking at my OW schedule for February, and it looks mediocre at best.? I need to run Occult and see if I can shake out anything else.?
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March looks much more interesting.? By then, average cloud coverage is somewhat less than the bleak mid-winter here in north-central PA.? The especially good events are:
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(1877) Marsden on 2 March (3 March UT)
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A mag 9.9 star, 3.2 sec max time, and a high 77 degree altitude in the east. George and an observer in MS already each have stations already planned on OW. I will likely try one remote plus my home observatory (on OW now) for this one.? The remote would likely be somewhere just inside the predicted shadow on the east side.
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(1963) Bezovec on 4 March
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Another mag 9.9 star, 3.4 sec max time, and 51 degree altitude in the west. No one currently signed up. I will likely try one (or two?) remote locations for this one.? It has an almost straight north south path--maybe some of the Maryland can get in on this one?? One of my remotes would be right on the predicted centerline--I've put a placeholder there for now on OW.
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(55471) 2001 TZ226 on 23 March
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The above event looks especially good, with a mag 7.7 star, 1.3 sec max time, and a high 72 degree altitude in the west.? George and an observer in the UK already each have stations already planned on OW.? I will likely try two remote (!) stations for this one--my previous attempts at two remote stations have gone very badly.? For now I'll put a single station near the centerline on OW.
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Steve C
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Steve C
rickbria22
George Viscome
