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12/16/19 - Flashback of the Day #analysis


 

Board 6 Tuesday was eerily like a hand I remember from 1983:

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The first table produced a result for which I cannot come up with a plausible scenario ¨C East declared 5S doubled and went down. It takes a fair amount of talent to take only eleven tricks; ten is beyond my comprehension. The resulting swing of two matchpoints made the difference between finishing second and third overall. Appropriately, that was only table not to bid to slam, although nobody found the winning 6S. Had Joyce been present and sitting N-S, she would doubtless have sacrificed at the seven-level over 6S had it been bid.

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A total of 43 tricks can be taken in the four suits against double-dummy defence. A club contract is the most straightforward; E-W can cash two tricks; declarer once in wins any number of remaining tricks. A spade contract is much the same, as N-S must cash their heart winner or they will never get it. West even gets a second chance if the spades (ruff a club lead or switch low, then lead low to the ace) and diamonds (queen first, then to ace or king) are misplayed. Hearts can be held to nine tricks, as West can reach East twice for club ruffs. Diamonds are perhaps the most interesting case. After a major or trump lead, declarer can take twelve tricks by managing a heart ruff and guessing the trumps. A club lead gives declarer the chance to get greedy. If trumps split 3-2, twelve tricks are there after a heart ruff. But ¨C club ruffed, heart, club ruffed, heart ruff, diamond queen, diamond ace(5-1) and declarer has lost control, ending with only seven tricks (the diamond king and one spade) as South holds two of the last three trumps. After trumping a club lead, the best declarer can do is cash out eleven tricks.

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The contract of choice was 6C at three tables, with three different scores. Karleta cashed their two tricks for +50. Shane did the same but doubled for the E-W top with +100. Louise¡¯s opponents were a little unlucky. East (not at all unreasonably) thought that Louise might be void in spades and led a diamond instead. That was not at all a bad thought. Unfortunately, West had the same thought and, not seeing North¡¯s distribution, tried a second diamond. East would have succeeded here by leading the diamond queen. West could have given a count signal to show an odd number. This would have let East know North held either one diamond or three, strongly suggesting a spade switch.

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How Rita and Harold were permitted to make 6H declared by South is difficult to guess. As Harold presumably opened 2H, the most plausible guess I can conjure does not make sense with a competent West. This guess is that West began with a top diamond. East, wanting a spade switch, played the queen as a violent suit preference signal. West took that to be a singleton and continued with a diamond. But, given West¡¯s doubleton heart, South can afford to trump with dummy¡¯s king; the only chance of success is if East began with two red singleton queens and declarer guesses to trump with the ten-spot. But that would mean that Harold would have opened 2H with two six-card red suits.

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West might make an interesting opening lead of the spade ten. Leading the low end of the sequence does act as a suit preference signal for a club return from East and does not run the risk attached to leading the diamond deuce. (I once declared 6H against a DeMartino team after a jump overcall in spades on my left and supported, when opening leader tried to reach partner for a club ruff by leading the deuce; fortunately dummy held the queen and I was sufficiently awake to call for it.) Here the flashy but risky lead of the diamond deuce works wonders. East wins the queen, returns the club seven for a spade return, and then wins that to give West a second ruff.

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In the auction, after a 2H opening bid from South, West has an excellent hand for Leaping Michaels, a jump to 4D to show diamonds and spades. North has a textbook 4NT. South will not hold three aces, but could hold two, which will make small slam barring an opposing ruff.

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How often do both sides hold legitimate slam tries on the same deal? West could well have a Losing Trick Count of four for the Leaping Michaels, and East, who knows from that bid that the diamond queen is working, could well provide three cover cards. This turns out to be exactly the case but finding the all-important 5H cue-bid is going exceptionally deep. The fear is whether West might expect a void. East is at least worth 5S, though.

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South can show one ace or key card by passing any five-level interference from East, in line with the D0P1 convention (at the six-level, all one can reasonably do is to show an odd or even number ¨C DOPE). North, however, ought to be willing to go to the six-level, as a sacrifice if nothing else. This could draw from either East or West a possible sacrifice in 6S. At IMP scoring, I¡¯d expect at least one table in a head-to-head match to bid to the seven-level, as the relative reward is so much higher than the risk.

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The remarkable thing about my flashback is that there are two significant differences in the current hand from the one I held in 1983. I had a hand nearly identical to that of North¡¯s, only with the singleton ace of spades, so that grand slam was possible. Partner, Scott Loring, opened 2H. RHO, Trina Walker, overcalled 2S. I bid the obvious 4NT.

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Then came the other significant difference. The club void was on the other side, with LHO instead of RHO. Trina¡¯s partner took advantage of the 4NT ask as an opportunity to make a neat lead-directing bid of 5C on his void. Happily, Scott and I were playing D0P1; he passed 5C holding the diamond ace but not the ace of hearts. I was planning to try 6C over whatever Trina bid when she passed, taking partner¡¯s 5C as natural. And then the happiest similarity of the two deals came into play ¨C we were at green vulnerability. I was able to pass 5C, which was set ten tricks for a score of +1000, guaranteed to better any non-doubled slam.

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