I forgot to mention ¨C I checked the L513 Yahoo Forum and didn¡¯t see mention of this study. I would have thought that it would have been big news there.
Iain McDonald has just published a new project analyzing all of the P312 Big-Y results. P312 is much older than our Z16357. The general heredity is P312 > L21/Z290 > L513 > S5668 > Z16357.
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He places the 95% reliability date of Z16357 being formed 2528BC ¡ª 1177BC with a central date of 1873BC. This is quite a bit older than the estimates I've been using. I generally run two sets - one at 1000BC and one at 500BC.
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He places Z17911 as formed 310BC ¡ª 713AD with a central date of 252AD. This is also quite a bit older than the 1000AD date I've calculated.
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As for our more recent haplogroups, his estimates are only slightly older than mine.
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Of note is that he did not include our recent Smith?BY19970 data. If he had, I think this would have pushed his dates a bit more recent.
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Does this mean that his estimates are right and mine wrong? We all perform mathematical analysis within certain constraints and assumptions. And the variability is notable. He certainly applies a strong methodology.
