Re: 2020 DATE VOTE RESULTS, and standard deviations
¿ªÔÆÌåÓý? This will - almost certainly - be the dates of the Black Forest Star Party. ?? Rather then the temperature, what will prove devastating - from an attendance standpoint - for your event is that anyone wishing for a superior observing experience will choose Cherry Springs and the Black Forest Star Party instead of the YCSP. ?? If YCSP is to be considered a ¡°can¡¯t miss¡± regional star party rather then the a small gathering of 20-30 people you need not have it on the same dates as the Black Forest Star Party. ?By doing so, you¡¯ll limit your attendance and the sales/profits that Buzzy Bee will realize. ?I do know that the folks running the Black Forest Star Party are looking at contacting Busy Bee as a possible food vendor for 2020 Black Forest Star Party. ?? Finally, your poll only took into account people who attended this year, and/or are members of this group. ?This is a much smaller audience then potential attendees if you were not competing with the Black Forest Star Party. I am not sure why you mentioned Brad Heist as it made no sense, but he¡¯ll be attending the Black Forest Star Party. ? Best of luck. ¡ª Paul Leuba On Nov 10, 2019, at 8:30 PM, philderosa1@... [YCSP] <YCSP@...> wrote: ?
OK, I am not keeping anyone in suspense.? We have a clear winner.? I will preface that by explaining 2 votes¡ We had a walk-in attendee that voted, and because that person made the effort to appear, I included that vote. The second vote was withheld until everyone else voted, and it really wouldn¡¯t have changed the result.? But I felt that person had at least as much right to express my opinion as anyone else, if not more.? That was my own vote. Assuming Busy Bee is available, the dates will be September 16-20, 2020 This was the result: ´¡³Ü²µ³Ü²õ³Ù¡¡¡.02% ³§±ð±è³Ù±ð³¾²ú±ð°ù¡53% October¡¡..39% ??(possible dates were October 14-18) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For those of you who look at averages (which includes me), I will share something I¡¯ve learned about them.? Standard deviations (sd) make a bigger difference.? For instance, the average of the stock market (I advise people about investments) is about 11% for about 75 years.? The problem is that it hit the average about 2 times in that period.? It¡¯s the highs and lows that drive investors nuts if they don¡¯t understand it. ? I looked up standard deviations for temperatures in this area, and to explain it simply, 1 standard deviation (sd) for the month of October is about 7 degrees either side of the average. 68% of the time, temps fall within 1 sd, or +/- 7 degrees of the average low of 48 degrees.? That can range from 41 to 55 degrees. However, about 27% of the time, temps fall between 1 and 2 sd¡¯s, or +/- 14 degrees of the average of 48.? That range now changes to 34-62 degrees.? No way to forecast this a year in advance. And for those extreme temps that fall OUTSIDE of 2 sd¡¯s 5% of the time?? Well, if I had decided to hold a star party this week, October 13-17, the forecast lows every night Tuesday-Sunday are expected to range 20-24 degrees¡? Not very often, but that would have proved devastating to a new party location that hasn¡¯t built a strong following yet. ? If you ever meet Bradley Heist, ask him about the averages for it to be cloudy or raining at the York observatory.? During his stint as event coordinator for a local club, he will tell you it is 100%.? That is, if he had planned a date for a club event¡ Phil ? __._,_.___
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