Moving on with Friday the 13th¡¯s Grand-Slam-a-Palooza we arrive at the tragedy of Board 2:
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Six of the twelve E-W pairs stopped in game (Lune doing particularly well when their opponents arrived in the inferiour 5C). Every other table played, at any level, in hearts. Jam salvaged a decent result in 4H, being the only pair to take thirteen tricks. This strikes me as rather unlikely with the trumps splitting 2-2. If declarer draws trumps, the clubs can be established, and, if declarer ruffs two diamonds, the 2-2 trump split (or singleton ten) also allows declarer to take all the tricks. Five pairs bid the small slam, in which Boyce and Glotin made the overtricks. Shahuvon were N-S top when their opponents bid 7H and went one down.
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If East¡¯s heart deuce were the ten, or even if the jack and deuce were swapped, 7H would be almost a guaranteed make. Declarer could easily trump two diamonds. As the cards lie, that line would have a chance of success of about 52.5%, as it would rely on dropping the ten-spot (which would work here). Establishing the clubs offers a much better chance.
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Assuming the standard opening lead of a trump and third hand following, declarer can cash one club (in case of a singleton queen, after which one diamond ruff will suffice). Then cash West¡¯s top spades, discarding East¡¯s other two clubs, and ruff the second round of clubs with an intermediate spot. If clubs split 3-2, then West has three winning clubs on which to discard East¡¯s low diamonds; draw trumps, ending in the West hand, and that¡¯s it. If clubs split 4-1 and either North has the shortage or South cannot overruff, then the hearts must split 2-2 ¨C lead a trump to West, which must draw the N-S trumps, then trump the third round of clubs, cash the diamond ace and reach West with a diamond ruff to discard the remaining two diamonds on West¡¯s last two clubs.
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If North holds at least two cards in each black suit and a third in either, declarer can survive North¡¯s holding all four trumps. Billie Hecker would have enjoyed such a layout, which might have appeared in the Goren column as one of the exploits of Trump Coup Tommy. I¡¯ll suppose a club lead from South to West¡¯s ace, then the heart ace, giving the bad news. Spade ace, spade king discarding a diamond and a club. Spade ruff, diamond ace, then East¡¯s last club to the king. If North follows, declarer is home free in the position:
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If North ever ruffs with the heart ten, East overruffs and has a high crossruff remaining. Otherwise, black and red ruffs alternate. Eventually, North will have to underruff. East when down to two trumps will finesse North¡¯s ten by ruffing. In this position, the lead must be in the West hand, or else East will be on lead at trick twelve with Q9 of hearts and unable to catch North¡¯s 106. If East held only one trump more than West, either hand could be on lead.
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Can 7H be bid? It does not seem too far-fetched. If East opens 2H (the void is less of a deterrent than it once was), West certainly envisions slam. The auction could be 2H-4NT; 6H-7H. East jumps to 6H to show one key card and a void in spades (the only suit higher than the trump suit; switch the red suits and 2D-4NT; 6D does not specify in which major the void lies). Unless East is Marge Fiedler (who would highly likely not hold the queen of hearts), West can bid 7H with reasonable expectation of being able to establish the clubs.
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If East passes and West opens 2C (Bill Reich might refrain, even with the six Quick Tricks, but I cannot think of anyone else who might), then East probably must give a 2H positive if the possibility exists. After 2C-2D; 3C-3H, West might not want to commit to the five-level. If West merely raises to 4H, East can advance. The Losing Trick Count is seven, and West should hold half the deck. A 4S cue-bid probably leads to 6H; West might cue-bid 5C and get 5D in reply, but then what? A 2H positive will likely draw a 3H raise and then 4NT from West, but West might be less eager for the grand slam without knowledge of East¡¯s holding six hearts.
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The Precision auction if East passes as dealer can catch up, due to the availability of a semi-positive 2H response to 1C. Fortunately, this sort of auction is generally not supposed to go the route of asking bids (as would have happened had East held West¡¯s jack of hearts and responded 1H), as E-W would have run out of room, finding the trump queen and diamond ace but also finding no control of clubs without being able to find the spade void as well.