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The final grand slam of the decade from Friday the 27^th came on Board 11:

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……………碍6

……………1093

……………蚕643

……………碍蚕96

10975………………蚕842

7652………………..闯4

惫辞颈诲…………………98752

闯7532………………108

……………础闯3

……………础碍蚕8

……………础碍闯10

……………础4

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Strangely, this hand was played more often in game than in grand slam. The pair stopping in 3NT was the last pair to play the board. Rushing to finish the last round may explain North’s reluctance to bid slam. If the clubs and hearts were reversed, I’d guess that North took South’s 3NT opening bid for the Gambling 3NT and made a risky pass instead of removing to 4C. Change the king-queen to the ace and passing a Gambling 3NT might pay off – the hand could be

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Kx

Axxx

Qxxx

xxx

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xx

xx

Jx

AKQxxxx

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and West might lead the ace of spades (an ace being the usual lead when a Gambling 3NT is left in). It risks a three-trick minimum penalty if East holds the spade ace and West leads, say, the ace of diamonds, but, in that case, E-W are cold for 4S, as they cannot lose more than one trick in each side suit with the trump finesse working, and an overtrick is likely if the red suits are distributed in a way that allows for the disposal of the slow diamond loser.

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Susan and Joe, playing together for the first time and doing an impersonation of Norma in her corner, held the E-W cards on this board as their first hand of the day, and started with a top when their opponents, unaccustomed to being Pair #1, made a nervous beginning, stopping in 5NT and taking only eleven tricks.

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Two pairs stopped in 4NT after difficulties over whether a bid of 4NT was asking or invitational. This makes a little more sense if the 4NT is bid by South, as I cannot see South’s wanting to decline any invitation. If North has responded 2NT to 2C (iffy with two kings; that response is better made on a hand with positive points but all in quacks, letting opener quickly realize when there are insufficient controls to make slam worth bidding), I could see a 4NT bid from South intended to ask (not my choice unless I were pressing). And then I could just see North, mistakenly taking 4NT as invitational on a 22-24 HCP hand, taking the conservative option, although, if I had bid 2NT in response to 2C, I’d have accepted an invitation.

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The classic auction could start 2C-2D; 3NT. North has enough in offensive values to expect to be able to go to slam (or at the very least invite if South rebids 2NT). The 3NT rebid is of the standard 25-27 HCP variety. (South might open 3NT if the pair is not playing the Gambling 3NT.) North then has a choice between a 6NT signoff, 5NT forcing to 6NT and inviting 7NT, and looking for a 4-4 fit in one of the minors if the partnership has a way to do so. Of course, with the bidding already at 3NT, what North could do about a 4-4 fit in a minor even if one were found is a big question. The lack of jacks with North push the hand into inviting the grand slam. South will be happy to accept any invitation. The hand could not be much better. Maybe the two jacks could be the diamond queen, and the diamond ten might be more useful in hearts (it’s wasted opposite Qxx or Qxxx in no-trumps), but those are only tiny improvements. The two four-card suits are particularly encouraging, as both provide four possible tricks. Indeed, the hand could claim 7NT opposite the right flat eight-count (KQxx? Jxx? Qxx? xxx).

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Pairs that play an artificial positive response to 2C seem to have the best chance to reach 7D, likely the destination of choice at IMP scoring. Looking at only the N-S hands, 7D seems virtually unassailable. Barring an opening ruff, 7D makes whenever trumps split 3-2 or against about 97% of the 4-1 splits when spades divide no worse than 6-2. There are even layouts that can survive a 5-0 trump split if enough winners can be cashed in the side suits. How likely it is one can survive 5-0 trumps being far beyond my small abilities to calculate, I am content to estimate the chance that 7D can make as being very close to 96%. The artificial positive gives N-S a chance to reach 7D, as South can then follow with 2NT, planning to get the bidding to slam at some point. This lets North use a Baron 3C; a possible auction could begin 2C-2D positive; 2NT-3C; 3D-4D showing Hxxx in support. If South then asks for key cards and eventually kings, finding two will make 7D quite appealing. A step response to 2C of 2NT showing 10-12 HCP makes the auction much harder. Theoretically, 3NT ought to be a de facto one-round force, as the partnership holds at least invitational-to-slam values. But South might well just jump directly to 7NT.

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7NT, while not quite so good, would be an acceptable contract even without the intermediates in the rounded suits. The bare-bones double chance of 3-3 hearts and otherwise the spade finesse is close to 68% on its own, and there will be squeeze chances besides to cross the hypothetical threshold of 70%. The actual layout boosts that a fair amount.

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There is a ceiling for 7NT. If West guards both majors, neither finesse succeeds. And if East guards the clubs, there is no squeeze, as all the guards lie behind all the threats. With no guarantee that either opponent guards either of the majors and a slightly reduced chance of a club guard, the ceiling goes to about 92%-93%. The heart intermediates increase the chance of the suit’s behaving to about 61%: a 3-3 split, the jack’s dropping, or West’s holding a void or low singleton. About 10% of the time, the club nine will take a trick by force when the jack-ten drop doubleton or tripleton. 7D is still safer, but the difference is not large, and the matchpoint lean to favour 7NT would give 7NT the higher score in a bidding contest.

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The play in 7NT is not terribly complicated. Interestingly, while it is often a good idea when one holds seven cards missing the jack in a crucial suit to save that suit for the last, but here declarer does well to test the hearts first. That will give declarer the contract most of the time.

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If West holds the heart guard, the play becomes rather simple. Now, if East holds the spade queen, the finesse is not necessary. Declarer can cash the spade and diamond winners after the hearts, coming down to:

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void

void

void

KQ96

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J

8

void

A4

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West holds the heart jack. If East holds the spade queen, neither opponent can guard the clubs. It will have been a squeeze of one defender but will have played out similarly to a double squeeze – even if both opponents could have guarded the clubs, they would both have been squeezed out of that guard at trick nine. If West holds the spade queen and East the club guard, then 7NT was never making anyway, but declarer gave the contract every possible chance.

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If East shows up with jack-fourth in hearts specifically (any longer and declarer can take the marked finesse – here it is not vital to unblock North’s intermediates on the first two rounds, but it is a good habit), the contract can always be made, but will require a read. Declarer runs the diamonds after the hearts and then assesses the spades in this position:

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K6

void

void

KQ96

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AJ3

8

void

A4

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If West seems to hold the spade queen, the contract can be made on the same squeeze as when the guards are swapped. To keep three spades, West has already had to give up any hypothetical fourth club. Otherwise, East will have to give up a fourth club when declarer cashes the king and ace of spades.

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If East seems to hold the spade queen, the finesse will succeed, but won’t be needed. Declarer cashes the three clubs. East must either already be down to a doubleton spade or come down to two spades to keep the heart jack. The queen will then drop before the finesse is taken. Additionally, if East shows out on a club, then declarer has executed a show-up squeeze on either opponent. East will have retained the heart jack and West the high club; neither defender can also guard the spades.

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7D may look doomed at first by the 5-0 trump split but can be made on the actual layout. I’ll assume a club lead, West’s riskiest choice but the safest as the cards lie. After the aces of clubs of diamonds reveal the bad news, declarer needs to force East into an underruff. The main difficulty lies in the hearts, which must be played first. If declarer reads East’s heart holding to be a doubleton, then after two hearts come the three top clubs. If East trumps the third club, South overruffs. South’s two trump winners are cashed, North’s hand is reached with the spade king, South’s spade jack is discarded on North’s diamond queen, and then South’s hand is high. If East discards a spade on the third club, South must change tack and discard a heart, as it is necessary to take the spade finesse and discard North’s last heart on the third spade. Now South’s last heart is trumped by North’s queen, and East must underruff. South takes the balance with high trumps.

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I’d expect many if not most declarers in 7D not to guess right. The plan goes wrong if South does not take the right number of hearts. Too many, and East ruffs. Too few, and East discards a heart on the third club, and then ruffs the second round of hearts, whenever that’s played. Declarer might, especially if West leads the heart seven, misread East’s heart length. It is certainly easier when East holds three or four hearts. If declarer tries a third heart and the suit splits 3-3, then cash two spades and two clubs, next leading the club queen (if East ruffs, the spade jack can be ruffed low and the thirteenth heart ruffed high. If East holds five trumps and four low hearts, North discards a spade on the fourth heart, then come the spade king and three clubs; if East trumps the queen, the spade jack can again be ruffed low. If East’s hearts are Jxxx, the fourth heart is ruffed low and then East’s pattern must be specifically 2=4=5=2.

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