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PS: The Martin son I mentioned is actually not listed for me at 37 markers which means he was GD5+ compared with me, but most likely he was GD5 at 37.?

James -

Here's a long writeup that may be helpful.

STR mutations are passed down from father to son, with a change in an
STR value happening every few generations (more or less). Analyzing
STRs can tell you generally how related two people are. The more STR
values that are the same or very similar, the more closely you are
likely to be related. The more STRs you test, the more accuracy you
get. We've all tested to at least 67 STRs, so we have pretty good
accuracy. But STRs fluctuate a bit and change somewhat regularly (some
more than others), so it's difficult to place an exact timeline or
degree of relationship to the individual mutations.

What Joel is analyzing is the differences between the STRs each of us
have and the most common STR signature (mode values) we all have (or
groups of us have) collectively. The more different someone's STRs are
from the mode values of everyone else in a group, the more distantly
related they likely are. That's what Joel's charts are showing - an
estimation of relationship over time based on STR similarities and
differences.

STR comparisons are what have allowed us to find people that probably
have the R-Z16357 SNP mutation because their tested STRs are very
similar to others that we know are R-Z16357.

SNP mutations generally occur with one specific man and are then
passed down forever to his grandsons. As these distinct mutations are
identified, we can build a tree that shows a history of mutations
(typically one mutation occurs every 100 years or so). Each distinct
mutation is assigned a haplogroup name (e.g., "R-Z16357").

Big-Y testing identifies lots of SNPs - some shared with others and
some that only that Big-Y tester has (called 'private' SNPs).

The difficulty with SNPs is that it takes at least two people getting
positive tests for a particular SNP to verify that it came from a
common ancestor - and to start to assign a timeline to when that
mutation occurred. If an SNP isn't shared among relatives (it's a
private SNP), then it doesn't tell us anything particularly useful (at
least initially until perhaps someone else tests positive for it then
it is no longer private to only one person).

Merrick was identified as having the BY11565 private SNP - nobody else
had yet tested positive for it. Goff's test results just show that he
has the same BY11565 SNP. So this verifies that it came from a common
ancestor and isn't a very recent, private SNP at all. Because BY11565
is shared by only Goff and Merrick, but BY11573 is shared by Bennett,
Thomas, Goff, and Merrick, we thus know that BY11565 is more recent
than BY11573 - a Goff/Merrick ancestor formed this mutation, but not a
Bennett/Thomas/Goff/Merrick ancestor.

Because BY11565 is the most unique, yet also shared SNP they have,
this is their new terminal SNP (the word "terminal" being used a bit
loosely because it can change).

As another example, Joel Hartley has a current terminal SNP of Z17911.
He has also tested positive for the (currently) private A11130 SNP
that nobody else has yet tested positive for. So we know A11130 is
younger than Z17911, otherwise others of us would have it too. We just
don't know how much younger it is.

To try to 'prove' an SNP as being from a common ancestor, you want to
test the most distantly related person you can find that shares that
known or potential male-line ancestor. If Joel's brother tests
A11130+, this would tell us nothing new because A11130 may have
occurred at their father. If his 7th cousin tests A11130+, then we
would know the SNP is at least as old as their 6th great-grandfather
(and younger than Z17911).

So, the goal of our project is to identify distantly related cousins
(based on surnames, genealogies, and/or STR relationships) to try to
both identify (via Big-Y) and 'prove' (via Big-Y or other SNP tests)
younger and younger SNPs/branches. Each new shared SNP/branch moves us
closer to present day.

Eventually our tree will have a whole suite of shared SNPs identified.
If someone is an STR and/or surname match to someone else in our
group, an inexpensive SNP test could then establish exactly how they
connect to our tree on that line, and thus the rest of humanity. This
is the end goal - and we're making good progress toward getting there.

Jared

Thomas Goff's SNP pack results are in and he has moved way down to the
tips of the Z17911 branch. He is both BY11573+ (currently with Thomas,
Bennett, and Merrick) and also BY11565+ which is only Merrick.

With him and Merrick both having this SNP, this creates a new BY11565+
branch of our tree!!! I had this as a theoretical branch, but this
confirms it. It also adds additional credibility to BY11573 as a very
solid branch, and pushes the tips of this branch at least 100 years
closer to present day.

Thank you Mr. Goff for investing in this test!

I need to process and analyze these results a bit more, but have
updated the SNP tree at . I catch a
flight for NYC early in the morning, but will soon notify Mike W. to
update his R-L513 tree. I also think that FTDNA should probably also
push a terminal SNP name update for all 4 of you to reflect these
findings.

I'm not sure if Merrick has done a FamilyFinder test, but if so, it
would be worth checking for an autosomal DNA match between you. It's
probably a long shot, but a match would place your common ancestor
within the last few hundred years.

Unfortunately, this does cause some disruption to Joel's STR analysis
in his wonderful blog post today. The STRs he suggests map to Z17911
and Z11573 work for everyone - except for Goff - who is just the
opposite. I, like Joel, had presumed that Goff would stay at Z17911
based on his STR results. He's a very close STR match to me, but I
don't have BY11573 or BY11565. I guess this shows that STRs (at least
less than 111+ of them) are still just a rough predictor of haplogroup
- especially for this last ~1000 years of our branch.

This is all very exciting to me!

Jared

Interesting! But over my head for most of it. Any good links to STR and SNP for Dummies?

Tnx, james

Sent from my iPad

I've just updated and uploaded new STR and GD spreadsheets -


I tried to position people based on rough groupings. Sorting the GD
spreadsheet by column provides the best insight into relationships.

I added some of our Hartley and Thomas relatives. I also added newly
found Watkins and Griffin people (all closely associated to
Vaughn/Vaughan). Also some Martyn people closely associated to
Thomas. Charles, do you know the connection here?

I think I've mostly completed what I've considered Phase 1 of this
project - identifying potential R-Z16357 people and future SNP testers
from people who have taken Y-DNA tests. I've exhausted Mike W.'s
spreadsheet, my STR matches, and several other sources. We're now at
75 very promising potential testers on our spreadsheet! But I know
there are more out there.

You can help with this by checking your FTDNA Y-STR matches (at Y25+)
for people I could add, especially focusing on surname groups I may
have missed. Some of you will have matches that I can't see.

Unfortunately, it's difficult to find good potential matches to the
Smith, etc. people who are or are likely Z16357. If we consider S5668
(the parent SNP to Z16357) as the trunk, and Z16357 as the base of our
branch, then R-Z17911 is way out at the end of that long branch. So
when you do STR comparisons, these Smiths are closer matches to
hundreds of people on totally different branches than they are to us
at the end of their own branch. This poses a distinct challenge, but
we have many good prospects identified already.

We'll now transition into recruiting these people to do Big-Y, or (as
we better define the STR grouping positions on the SNP tree) SNP pack
or single SNP tests. And also trying to connect genealogical lines and
geographies.

Jared Smith (FTDNA #307773)

New messages to the discussion list can be sent to [email protected]
Subscribe by e-mailing [email protected] or go to
/g/Z16357

The Z16357 project web site is It has STR
and SNP spreadsheets, known ancestries for members, and additional
information and resources on our branch of the Y-DNA tree.

Today I added a new tree overview graphic at
and on the homepage. It should provide
a more basic overview of where folks are at - or may end up with
testing.

I also added Joel's STR relationship chart to the STR page.

I've also further extended the STR and GD spreadsheets with likely
Z16357+ people. I want to add as many as I can find, then I'll focus
more on recruiting them to the project (I'll need help from others to
get contact info from their Y-DNA and Big-Y matches).

The tree is likely to change a bit in the coming month or so with the
several tests that are underway - it makes sense to get a better sense
of where some of the new people end up before recommending tests for
others.


Feedback and additional ideas are very welcome.

Jared