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I plan to send this to the newspapers, maybe the CBC too, and I'd appreciate feedback on it. Thanks!

From a Merry Minority to a Miserable Majority: was Higgs' 2020 snap election call a mistake?

The PCs have just suffered a big loss. This seems like a good time for the party to reflect upon mistakes made and lessons learned. These reflections need to go back as far as Higgs' first big mistake: pulling the plug early on his minority government.

After the 2018 election, the PCs had 22 seats--one more than the Liberals, but short of the 25 required for a majority in the 49-seat legislature. So Blaine Higgs teamed up with Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and formed a collaborative government.

And a strange thing happened--the legislature became an almost pleasant place to be. Higgs' nascent tyrannical tendencies were reined in, and the two parties worked together on legislation.

, Harry Forestell asked Higgs, "Do you think that New Brunswickers, with this minority government, are getting a better deal than they would with a majority?" Higgs replied, "Well, you'd have to ask the public that, but I would say yes."

In 2020, an all-party committee formed to deal with COVID-19. The spirit of collaboration extended beyond the two parties in government, embracing the opposition. And it worked. Swift action kept case levels low in New Brunswick.

All this created a lot of public satisfaction with the government. The PCs rose in the polls. Seeing that, Higgs changed his tune on minority governments. He decided to call a snap election. It was the first one held in Canada during the pandemic. It even paved the way for other opportunistic election calls across the country, as other Premiers saw Higgs get away with it.

But did Higgs really get away with it? He snagged the majority he wanted--27 seats. But things started to go pear-shaped fairly soon afterwards. COVID-19 cases soared. The atmosphere in the legislature turned sour.

Without another party holding him in check, Higgs became the leader he always wanted to be. It turned out that wasn't a good thing. One of his heavy-handed moves was ending elections of Regional Health Authorities. Another was his attempt to abolish French Immersion, something he had to back off on after a public outcry. Neither of these things had been an election promise.

The first cabinet minister to break with Higgs was Dominic Cardy, in the fall of 2022. , he accused Higgs of micromanaging, consolidating his own power, and yelling "Data my ass," at a civil servant.

A year later, Higgs' one-sided decision to change Policy 713 resulted in a caucus rebellion. Eight caucus members, six of them ministers, left the legislature to protest their leader's "lack of process and transparency."

Amid calls to resign, Higgs stood his ground. When caucus members declared that they weren't running again, Higgs replaced them with more amenable candidates.

On October 21, the Liberals won 48% of the vote and a towering majority of 31 seats. The PCs were reduced to 16 seats. Higgs himself was defeated in his Quispamsis riding. At last, he has declared that his resignation is "extremely likely."

Higgs went from a merry minority to a miserable majority. That 2020 snap election call isn't looking like such a great idea now.

If Higgs had decided to govern his full term with a minority government that was doing just fine, in all probability he never would have faced a caucus rebellion. Satisfaction with the government would not have declined so precipitously. In the 2022 election that would have followed, the PCs wouldn't have lost as many seats.

The PCs will soon be looking for a new leader. They would be wise to choose one who is more interested in collaboration and building consensus. A leader who can appreciate a good minority government.

Might the PCs even consider supporting a change to the voting system, so that minority governments can become the norm? It was, after all, a PC government, under Bernard Lord, that convened the 2003 Commission on Legislative Democracy. That commission recommended changing the voting system to Mixed-Member Proportional Representation.

Perhaps Bernard Lord would like to come out of retirement.
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